Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank expects ECB’s next rate move only in 2026, and it’s a hike

Strong economic indicators are forcing a significant recalibration of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, according to recent analysis from Deutsche Bank, creating substantial implications for financial markets and monetary policy through 2025. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Face Data-Driven Reassessment Market participants currently watch Federal Reserve policy with intense scrutiny.

As tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran escalate, markets have reacted in textbook fashion — equities weakened, oil surged, and volatility spiked. Yet gold, the traditional safe-haven asset, shocked traders by plunging more than 6% intraday at one point on March 3 before fluctuating wildly.

Deutsche Bank analysts note that Brent Oil has stabilised after its strongest two‑day gain since 2020, but remains driven by fast‑moving geopolitical risks. Brent rising back above $83.99/bbl as tensions between the US and Iran persisted and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz and Chinese export behaviour supported higher Oil prices.

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that markets are pricing out early Federal Reserve easing following strong ISM Services and ADP private payrolls data. Analysts note that the probability of a June rate cut has fallen to 39% as skepticism grows that a new Fed Chair can start cutting rates straight away.

The world’s leading institutional conference is back in the heart of New York on 13-14 May, where capital markets transformation will be examined in depth, from issuance and market structure to settlement, custody, liquidity and regulatory alignment.

The energy price jolt from this week's Middle East shock has left Europe fretting about an economic hit akin to the invasion of Ukraine four years ago. But initial fears may be overdone if - and it's a big "if" - futures markets prove accurate.

(Alliance News) - The following London-listed shares received analyst recommendations Thursday morning and on Wednesday: ---------- FTSE 100 ---------- UBS cuts Intertek price target to 6,000 (6,250) pence - 'buy' ---------- Citigroup cuts Intertek price

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Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that markets are pricing out early Federal Reserve easing following strong ISM Services and ADP private payrolls data. Analysts note that the probability of a June rate cut has fallen to 39% as skepticism grows that a new Fed Chair can start cutting rates straight away.

Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing expressed concerns on Wednesday about the ongoing conflict in Iran, stating that it is heightening fears of sustained volatility in the region. Speaking at a Frankfurt conference, Sewing warned that the longer the conflict persists, the greater the economic and macroeconomic implications for Germany and Europe.

BitcoinWorld Oil Prices Surge: Stunning Spike Follows Middle East Shock – Deutsche Bank Analysis Global oil markets experienced a stunning and immediate price surge this week, reacting to a significant geopolitical shock in the Middle East.